The Armed Forces of Ukraine — do they exist now?
Almost 3 weeks have passed since the beginning of hostilities in Ukraine. All this time I have been reading the reports of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, American, European news feeds, even Russian media reports. The minimalism of Ukrainian reports, on the one hand, could be explained by the secrecy policy, but the loss of city after city, region after region, seems to indicate that the Ukrainian army, as a single, manageable, and effective structure, no longer exists.
Today, there are dozens of groups of different numbers isolated from each other, occupying cities and towns. No centralized supply, no air support, no approach of reinforcements. They are not able to act within the framework of any plans of the headquarters. Just crowds of armed men with orders to stand to the death.
The main groups “North” and “East” were beheaded and deprived of command — these are 22 brigades, which were entrusted with the honorable duty to drown Donbass in blood at the beginning of March. They were just a little late. Now 150 thousand people are cut off from each other. It took the Russians five days to encircle them…
There is no organized resistance in other operational areas. Separate units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, National Guard troops, SR-groups. Everyone acts at their discretion, with varying degrees of activity. There is no way to move in columns, regroup, replenish ammunition, fuel, equipment even in local warehouses, everything is systematically destroyed by high-precision weapons and aircraft.
In a week or two, almost all the troops of Ukraine will turn into detachments completely devoid of ammunition, fuel, medicines, and food. Mentally and physically exhausted, without a unified command, goals, and objectives. For the army, this is a terrible thing, despondency, and decay. Especially for the Ukrainian, which keeps on fear, propped up by barrage detachments. Servicemen fear for the fate of families in the rear.
Some time ago, Russian troops changed tactics. It looks like the second stage of the operation has begun. A neutral or terrorist-fearing population (like Syria?), among which it is almost impossible to identify militants. Russians do not take such settlements; they surround cities with nationalist battalions. In some places, cities are taken into semi-encirclement, thereby inviting defenders to leave the territory on their own. No organized military columns, heavy equipment, all this is being destroyed. The Russians are strategically solving three main tasks of the special operation for themselves: minimizing losses among the civilian population and infrastructure, our units, and the army of Ukraine.
To be enthusiastically cut by the Russian and Ukrainian military with each other is too luxurious a gift for Washington and the European Union. Sabotage groups will become legitimate prey for counter-terrorist detachments, military police, and people of the head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov.
Judging by the latest strikes on the training center near L’viv, an even sadder fate awaits numerous mercenaries, from whom they form not military units (once), but SR-groups. The Russian General Staff has already stated that it does not consider them combatants with all the ensuing consequences, no conventions on prisoners of war work here. I am sure that a special, cruel, and purposeful hunt will be conducted for these “soldiers of fortune”.
I will not tell you in detail how and where the fighting unfolds, there is enough information from professional experts in the public domain. But everything is happening strictly according to plans, the Russians have not even begun to transfer reserves, and they are standing in columns in the border areas. Losses are not just tolerable (from a military statistical point of view) — insignificant. Not a single unit has been allocated for re-formation or rest, which means it is fully combat-ready.
Look at the map, estimate the distances, marches, constant clashes, regrouping, maneuvering for tens of kilometers, and remember — the Russians are opposed by the third largest army in Europe and extremely motivated nationalist formations.
Russians say they don’t need other countries. Thank God.
